Determinantes do contrabando ou do descaminho nos municípios do Paraná

Abstract

The crimes of smuggling of goods and tax evasion harm several areas of a society, including the economy. This article aimed at analyzing the determinants of smuggling and tax evasion in the state of Paraná during the period from 2017 to 2022, using two spatial econometric estimations with the spatial Tobit model. The first estimation covered the years 2017, 2018, and 2019, while the second considered the years 2020, 2021, and 2022, focusing on identifying potential changes in the determinants of smuggling and tax evasion resulting from the Covid-19 pandemic. The main determinants of smuggling in the municipalities of Paraná were identified as the proximity to BR-277, geographical location near the borders of Paraguay and Argentina, levels of corruption among public servants, economic vulnerability, as well as the formal crime control apparatus and enforcement rigor. Furthermore, it was observed that adverse events, such as the Covid-19 pandemic, can impact the determining variables of crime and alter the behavior of criminal organizations.