Consumo de energia elétrica em baixa tensão: uma análise socioeconômica comparada

Abstract

The objective of the present study was to analyze the determinants of low-voltage electricity consumption between the municipalities of Ceará and Paraná, in the period from 2005 to 2016, focusing on the economic and social effects, as well as on those caused by the spatial spillover of these determinants. To this end, four models were estimated. The first considered the most relevant Marshallian determinants (price and income). The second considered evaluating the impact of human development on said demand. The third model checked the influence levels of the three dimensions of human development (health, education, and income). Finally, the last model observed the impact of the variation in the quantity of companies in the industrial, services, and agricultural sectors on this demand. To achieve the research objectives, the econometric-spatial technique was used, with panel data. The results of the spatial distribution and the evolution of consumption demonstrated the existence of spatial dependence, which is why its non-treatment can result in biased estimates, which was proven in the comparison with a-spatial models. The formation of low-low clusters was also verified in the inland municipalities of both states. This fact demonstrates the importance of developing policies to strengthen the economic dynamics of the interior of both states. For the first model, it was found that the sensitivity of the demand for low voltage electricity for the least developed state (Ceará) was price elastic, which proves the importance of the social tariff for electricity for the low income population in the municipalities of this region. It was also shown that the indirect effects are close to the direct effects in the region where income and development levels are higher. The second model proved that human development was more significant in determining this demand in the most developed state (Paraná), where it is higher. It was also possible to verify that the spatial effects of human development are greater than its local effects in the less developed state, suggesting that increases in this indicator have decreasing spatial effects. The third model proved that in Ceará, only the sub-index of human development relative to education was locally significant; in Paraná, education and income were relevant. Finally, the last model demonstrated that the variation in the number of firms in all sectors is significant in influencing low voltage electricity consumption in both states. The differences are in the level of impact of such variation being larger and more significant in the State of Paraná, as well as the spatial effects being larger than the local effects in the less developed State.