Probabilidade no Ensino Básico: possibilidades para uma abordagem axiomática

Abstract

In the present work, whose main theme deals with the content of probability and its teaching, we present how this content is being worked on in Brazil, through a documentary analysis based on ocial education documents and books that are part of the national textbook plan (Brazil). With the aim of contributing to the teaching of probability, especially in public schools, we propose an axiomatic teaching approach for the 8th year of elementary school. A didactic sequence is the product of this dissertation. Additionally, in parallel with non-Euclidean geometries, we present an extension to A. Kolmogorov's probability theory, due to M. Burgin. This extended theory admits the possibility of negative probabilities. As applications of negative probabilities, we present an option pricing model and an analysis of the half-coin toss.