A relação financeira entre o Banco Central e o Tesouro Nacional em um modelo DSGE

Abstract

When a central bank (CB) performs its functions as a monetary authority, its balance sheet undergoes variations. In Brazil, the proportion of net assets in foreign currency in the CB’s balance sheet has increased considerably from the beginning of the century, mainly due to the large accumulation of international reserves. In light of these events, and considering the floating exchange rate and the accrual regime for profit and loss accounting of the Central Bank, the CB’s balance sheet has become very volatile. The transfer of the CB’s result to the National Treasury (NT) is determined by Law 11,803/2008, which in its current form has undesirable effects on Brazilian fiscal and monetary policy. Thus, this paper aimed to analyze the transfer of the CB’s balance sheet to the NT through a Dynamic General Stochastic Equilibrium model (DSGE) in which the CB has a separated balance sheet from the NT, that could negatively impact its monetary policy objectives. The results indicate that the NT must issue bonds to the CB in response to a negative shock on CB’s balance sheet result, as determined by Law 11,803/2008, increasing public debt.