Ajuste fiscal: uma análise SVAR para o Brasil no período de 1999 a 2018

Abstract

In view of the current Brazilian economic scenario, where public debt, government expenditures, and revenues are one of the main topics of discussion, this study search for identify the effects of fiscal consolidation on the Brazilian economy. In this way, the objective of the present work is to verify how the Brazilian economy, mainly the aggregate production, reacts to fiscal adjustments made by shocks of expenses and revenues. Quarterly time series from the Bacen (Brazilian Central Bank) and Transparent Treasury, from 1999 to 2018, are used. The variables used were Gross Domestic Product, Central Government Net Total Debt, Real Interest, Expenses and Revenues of the central government. In order to reach the objective, the econometric method used was the Autoregressive Structural Vector (SVAR), through its techniques of function Impulse Response and Decomposition of Forecast Error Variance. As results obtained, one can identify that an increase in government revenues caused a fall in GDP until the first quarter after the shock and then had a nearly null effect on the product. While the adjustment based on a cut in spending caused a fall in GDP for two quarters and then the effect were close to zero. The effects of fiscal consolidation on debt were more significant when compared to the effect on the product. Revenue from an increase causes debt to rise until the fourth quarter after a shock, and then the effect begins to decline. Already the effect of a fiscal adjustment based on cut of expenses would cause a fall in the debt in the first quarter post shock, but from the second quarter the effect decreases. The effects estimated in this research also showed that fiscal consolidation did not cause long-term recession, since its effects lasted for periods shorter than two years.