Redução da mortalidade infantil e cumprimento do ODM4 nos municípios brasileiros

Abstract

In the year 2000, the Millennium Forum, in New York City (USA), defined the objective of reducing infant mortality under five years by two thirds, a goal established by the end of the year. year 2015, called the 4th global millennium objective (MDG4). In this context, this work sought to analyze the conditions that affect the probability of a Brazilian municipality to achieve MDG4, considering the period from 2000 to 2015. More precisely, the reach of MDG 4 was measured among Brazilian municipalities in 2015, in a spatial analysis. In addition, the same analyzes were carried out for each region of the country. For this, the spatial Probit model was used with data mainly from the Demographic Census and DATASUS Tabnet System, in addition to making a comparative analysis between the years 2000 and 2015 between municipalities and regions in Brazil, verifying the municipalities that reduced the number of infant deaths across the country and reached the target of 15.7 infant deaths per thousand live births. As a corollary, there was a significant advance in the municipalities that reached MDG 4 in 2015, with heterogeneity throughout the country, with the best results being in the South and Southeast regions. With regard to the factors that affect the likelihood of entering the 4th Millennium Development Goal, a negative effect was found for the illiteracy rate among women, for the fertility rate and for income inequality, with a spatial effect of these variables. In addition, the Family Health Program contributed positively to raising the probability of the municipality having achieved MDG4. Regionally, these factors were important, with an emphasis on fertility in regions that have not yet reached, on average, the millennium goal, and the formation of female human capital for the South and Southeast regions that are already within the MDG 4.