Um ABM Norte-Sul com dinâmica de demanda e mudança estrutural convergência e divergência econômica em uma relação bilateral

Abstract

In this work an ABM model was constructed able to answer the questions that involve the technologicalandeconomicdistancebetweenthecountries.Themodelgeneratedintegrates the microeconomic environment through the theoretical framework of evolutionary theory and the macroeconomic environment and international trade by the post-Keynesian theory. In addition, internal dynamics of productivity, wages, prices, competitiveness, demand and foreign exchange were considered in the model. Three different simulation scenarios were constructed: absence, presence and abandonment of industrial policies by the North and South countries. The main results point to the emergence of a technological gap in an environment where there are asymmetries between countries and absence of industrial policies. In addition, they suggest the commercial specialization and structural change towards the science-based sector in the North country and the sectoral and commercial specialization of the South in products of the cumulative-technology sector. There was economic divergence in terms of GDP per capita and income, represented by the real wages of the countries. In the second scenario, it was observed that the industrial policy was effective in reducing the technological gap and increasing the commercial and sector specialization of the South country towards the science-based sector, in addition to a significant convergence of per capita GDP and income, through countries’ real salary. The third scenario demonstrated that the abandonment of industrial policies was detrimental to the most backward country, as this meant the loss of the reduction of the technological gap and also the divergence of income, represented by the real wages of the countries.