Transmissão de preços entre animais vivos e terminados nos mercados bovino e suíno no Estado de São Paulo (2013-2018)

Abstract

In this work an investigation is carried out regarding the transmission of prices between cattle and pig indicators (live and finished) between January 2013 and December 2018 in the State of São Paulo. The data obtained refer to the daily prices collected at the Agricultural Economics Research Center CEPEA. We used the VAR (Vector Regressive Auto) methodology to obtain the results. The results of the impulse response function showed that unanticipated changes in the price of the Live Swine Indicator are not transferred to the indicator of this finished animal, which is confirmed in relation to cattle. After 30 days after the incidence of an unanticipated shock on Calf prices, about 98.65% of the decomposition of its forecast error is due to itself, and only 0.0715% is due to the behavior of the of cattle, a similar relation to the pig index that identified 98.51% to the behavior of the live pig indicator. The results showed that the prices of finished products have no long-term relationship, which influences the prices of live animals, showing that this market has an efficient chain.