Soil carbon balance in long-term no-till in a sub-tropical environment

Abstract

Soils can be a source or sink of atmospheric CO2, according to land use and management. Currently the land use and land use change (LULUC) emits 1.3 ± 0.5 Pg carbon (C) year-1, equivalent to 8% of the global annual emission. Techniques such as low carbon agriculture, has been developed to sequester C in soils and reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. However, besides political and social challenges for the system adoption, there’s still great uncertainty related to its real mitigation potential. This study aimed: i) Quantify the historical and current main sources of GHG emissions for Campos Gerais region in Paraná state, Brazil; ii) quantify the potential of long term (30 years) agricultural best management practices, based on the three pillars of conservative agriculture: permanent soil cover, crop rotation and no-till, to sequester C in soils, using Paiquerê farm (located in Campos Gerais region) as a successful model; iii) estimate the impact of best management practices adoption in the region croplands and globally for the next 100 years where is suitable using Century and Roth-C models. The GHG emission sources were presented as an inventory and showed that historical (1930 – 2017) GHG emissions in the region was 412.18 Tg C, in which LULUC contributes 91% (376.2±130 Tg C). Forestry sequestered 51.7 ± 23.9 Tg C in 0.6 Mha in 47 years (1.8 Tg C Mha-1 year-1) and no-till sequestered 30.4 ± 23.9 Tg C in 1.9 Mha in 32 years (0.5 Tg C Mha-1 year-1). Both models performed well, and Century was more efficient for simulate the SOC stocks, the mean residue was 10 Mg C ha−1 (13%) for n = 91. The model residue increased along with the oxides content in the soil clay fraction, suggesting that mineralogical control inclusion can reduce the model simulation bias. Century predictions showed that the system currently practiced at Paiquerê farm have the potential to mitigate 13 years of regional total emissions (330 Tg C in 100 years) or 105 years of agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU) sector emissions (40 Tg in 100 years) in the region. In the same way, it has the potential to sequester 2.5±0.02 Pg C at 0-20 cm and 11.7±3 Pg C at 0-100 cm soil depth in 86 million ha globally. This is equivalent to 11% of global annual emissions from LULUC sector. In this way, our methodology can be used as a model to access the potential of conservation agriculture to sequester C and support public policies aiming to mitigate GHG emissions.