O modelo base exportação para os municípios do Centro-Oeste brasileiro

Abstract

The Midwest region showed growth over the period as its GDP grew five times more between 2000 and 2017, in addition to the growth in the share of national GDP and also growth in the number of companies in the sectors of the economy. Thus, the objective of this research is to form an export base using the Theory of the Export Base for the Midwest region in the years 1991, 2000, 2010 and 2018. To characterize the sectors as basic and non-basic, the locational quotient was used. The analysis variable in this type of research is the amount of employment by IBGE subsectors and by municipality in the Midwest region. From the moment that the employment of the subsectors is divided between basic and non-basic, it is possible to relate the sectors as exporters and the domestic market. The methodology used to measure the impacts of the basic sector in the non-basic sector was a panel model with a fixed effect. And the employment multiplier used was the Keynesian multiplier with the proportion of non-basic to basic employment. The main results are: in all states, employment in the basic sector was higher than in the non-basic sector; agriculture is the main sector in the Midwest region; the other exporting sectors are the food products industry and the non-metallic mineral products industry. Regarding the equation used, the main impact was that of the basic sector in the non-basic sector, which showed the result that for every four vacancies created in the basic sector, one is generated in the non-basic sector, and the size of the economy because it was found that when the municipalities had more than average employment generated more employment in the non-basic sector. The job multiplier was shown to be very dynamic because during the years there were several changes in the maps indicating that the regions were increasing the job multiplier. Concluding the research achieved the proposed objectives, managing to form an export base for the region and measuring the impacts on the sectors, the economy of the Midwest region also proved to be very dynamic for the application of the method.